Facing federal cuts, Miami creating hurricane forecasting plan

Written by Genevieve Bowen on September 24, 2025

With federal budget cuts threatening hurricane forecasting, Miami is moving to protect its storm-readiness, coordinating with local partners and preparing contingency plans to fill potential gaps.

Upon recommendation of the city’s Climate Resilience Committee, Miami commissioners are to vote on September 25 on adopting the Science-based Tracking and Operational Resilience for Miami (STORM) initiative. If approved, the measure directs the city manager to affirm Miami’s commitment to science-based weather tracking, coordinate with regional partners to identify gaps and advocate for the preservation of funding for forecasting agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) that guide local storm response and emergency preparedness.

The move comes as NOAA and the NWS face steep funding threats in the president’s fiscal 2026 budget request, which proposed a 27% reduction to NOAA’s budget. While the House and Senate Appropriations Committees have rejected the most severe cuts, hurricane experts including Miami’s John Morales, Dr. John Cortines, Dr. Robert Atlas and James Franklin warn that even partial reductions could lead to the loss of essential observation systems and a 20% to 40% reduction in staffing at South Florida forecast, monitoring and research offices, weakening the region’s ability to prepare for fast-changing storms.

NOAA and NWS provide the backbone of Miami’s emergency preparedness system, whose primary mission is to protect life and property. Their data is used by municipal departments, Miami-Dade County, the South Florida Regional Planning Council and the Florida Division of Emergency Management to create evacuation plans and storm alerts for the more than 6.4 million residents in the metro area. That includes more than 85,000 people living below three feet of elevation, some of the most vulnerable in the nation.

Experts say stakes are growing as hurricanes become more destructive. Hurricane Milton in October 2024 intensified from Category 1 to Category 5 in just seven hours, compressing the time residents had to prepare. Hurricane Ian in 2022 dumped more than 20 inches of rain on parts of Florida, caused 12- to 18-foot storm surges and left 2.7 million customers without power. Officials worry that losing high-quality data could worsen “warning fatigue,” a phenomenon where residents stop taking alerts seriously, leaving them unprepared for catastrophic events.

Supporting documents highlight the economic benefits of accurate forecasting. Studies by the American Meteorological Society and others say federal weather forecasting yields up to $15 in benefits for every dollar spent, and a 2022 report estimated that hurricane forecast improvements since 2009 saved $7 billion, 20 times the cost of NOAA’s hurricane program in that period.

The STORM initiative, sponsored by Commissioner Damian Pardo and recommended by the Climate Resilience Committee, directs the city manager to formally advocate to preserve NOAA and NWS funding at the federal, state and local levels, audit the city’s reliance on federal data to identify gaps, and integrate supplemental information from sources such as FEMA, USGS, the University of Miami and FIU, and coordinate with Miami-Dade County, neighboring municipalities and the Southeast Florida Climate Compact to ensure consistent, science-based storm messaging.

If adopted, the city manager will begin those steps, coordinating with local and regional partners to address potential federal budget cuts, preparing contingency plans for data gaps, and formally adopting the STORM framework as city policy.