Everybody wants to live in Florida – anywhere but Miami
If we believe our own publicity, Miami-Dade is booming as people from across the nation rush to live here and our population soars. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your views, it just ain’t so.
The fact is, the county’s population is nearly 15,000 people smaller – yes, smaller – than it was just after the start of the pandemic four years ago.
That’s what US census numbers released last week show.
Don’t be misled by the census bureau’s news release that Florida is absolutely booming in population growth, with four of the nation’s five fastest-growing metropolitan areas last year being in the state.
That report is true – but it doesn’t mention Miami-Dade, which trails far behind the rest of the state’s 14 metropolitan areas in population flows.
Since April 1, 2020, of Florida’s 67 counties, 60 have added people as residents from the rest of the nation flock to the state. The seven losers were five small and poor counties in North Florida, our neighbor Monroe County (the Florida Keys), and – surprise – Miami-Dade.
In fact, during the highly touted inflow to Miami of the very wealthy and the financial, technological and law firm explosion that accompanied them during the pandemic, our population fell as they arrived. A lot of money came in, a lot of workers flowed out.
These aren’t just interesting facts. The implications need careful business and government attention.
Elected officials seem to be focused on meeting demands that a rapidly growing population is going to create. Those plans to keep building to meet demand should get a second look through the lens of what is really happening. Leaders might focus more on serving the needs of people who are already here and are leaving.
Developers might do the same. Are we building faster than need is growing? Are we expanding to serve customers who are flowing in more slowly than our hype of growth claims?
It’s true that people are flowing into Miami-Dade in big numbers from other nations, both the wealthy and the poor – but fewer in the middle. Meanwhile, we lose people to the rest of this nation faster than we are gaining from abroad, and those who are leaving are neither the very wealthy nor the very poor – they are the middle class.
This census report doesn’t tell us the economics of population flows, but past reports show people leaving Miami-Dade to live in areas where living costs are lower, not higher.
Take a closer look at what we have just learned from the census.
From April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023, our natural population growth was very real. We had 12,406 more births than deaths in Miami-Dade County.
During that period we also gained markedly from abroad: 107,785 more people from abroad came to Miami-Dade than moved abroad from here. That is the global population boom we all know about.
But, at the same time, 134,382 more people left Miami-Dade for the rest of the United States than arrived from the rest of the nation. That is the figure that needs careful attention as we assess our economic and policy climate.
Why do people choose to leave us? Everyplace loses residents to other areas, just as every area gains some from elsewhere. But we are far out of balance, as the number prove. Everybody in the nation wants to move to Florida – just not to Miami.
Take The Villages in West Central Florida. It’s a retirement haven. In the past year, its population grew 4.7%, faster than anywhere in the US. Pretty clearly, it’s been a long time since Miami was a retirement area for those who can’t afford high-priced comfort.
But let’s look at other big Florida cities, none of which is a one-trick retirement pony. Orlando and Tampa each grew by more than 50,000 residents from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023. Even Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach grew faster than we did.
As earlier census numbers revealed a year ago, this phenomenon of Miami’s population outflow to the rest of this state and nation did not begin with the pandemic. Those numbers showed this county’s residents moving to other US metropolitan areas from 2016 to 2020 in far greater numbers than were moving here, with the noted exception of New York City, from which people were flowing here in a vast river.
Taken together with the new numbers showing a pandemic era Miami-Dade population loss that has not been regained, the causes seem clear: those who are moving here from the US could afford to live anywhere they chose, and those who are moving out cannot afford to live in Miami.
It is noteworthy that billionaires want to be here. We certainly applaud that.
On the other hand, it is highly troubling that qualified people who actually work here leave in greater numbers than they can be replaced.
It’s bad for society that people who make Miami function feel that they have to go. Housing costs rise by nearly double digits in a year and mobility that they need to reach work seems to shrink annually. The cost of living rises here far faster than almost anywhere else.
The tipping point creates an outflow of productive people who we are not replacing. That’s the flow we must reverse.
mnelson
March 20, 2024 at 3:53 pm
As we watch condo prices plumit we’re tempted to buy in Florida. But we still don’t see the attraction, say compared to Georgia, Tennessee or even the newly discovered Emerald Coast of Nicaragua. Too much traffic, flat featureless land, few shade trees and condos everywhere, major insurance costs, high living costd, etc.Is a real estate crash coming?
Wendy Bordas
March 20, 2024 at 10:04 pm
Nailed it!
Jeff Flesner
March 21, 2024 at 11:26 am
The Miamijob market doesn’t support the cost of living, prices keep increasing, salaries don’t. The bling doesn’t shine like it used to, it’s cost to much.
Richard R-P
March 21, 2024 at 12:22 pm
It seems to me that the city of Miami itself is probably increasing in population. I think this is outweighed by what seems to me to be an exodus of people from the western suburbs, perhaps with the exception of Doral. I see many deed transfers in the public records that show the sellers as living out of state – places like Tennessee, the Carolinas, Georgia. I presume that’s where they have moved. It’s very hard to afford to live here anymore.
Yetta
March 21, 2024 at 12:39 pm
At the end of the day, it all comes down to cost. The average, middle class person can no longer afford to live in Miami. Not only is the cost of rent expensive but the cost of living is outrageous as well. It just makes sense to leave and move somewhere else where your money goes further. Paying around $4000 in rent-on the low end for a tiny apartment just doesn’t make sense….especially when the hourly minimum wage for most is around $17 give or take. There has been a ton of international growth because if your not American theirs a lot of programs that will help you financially.
Bevy
March 21, 2024 at 2:30 pm
LOL! NOT EVERYBODY!
Gus
March 21, 2024 at 8:00 pm
Come to Hialeah!
Michael Berman
March 22, 2024 at 5:30 am
Garbage article based on a tiny droplet of cherrypicked stats.
Felix
March 23, 2024 at 5:40 pm
This is a pattern seen in other major US cities- NYC, LA, Chicago, Philadelphia.
These cities all lose people.
It really is a mark of success and maturity.
Costs increase,then people leave. I imagine many of those who leave Miami are the recent immigrants who move on for jobs elsewhere.
Is there room for imorovement of course there
is.
I’d like to see more reasonably priced venues for all people but especially for the younger crowd. Any successful city attracts and keeps younger people. Miami does not do that. It would be great if Coral Way is lined up with cheaper restaurants and bars. Miami does not have a
neighborhood with reasonably priced bars and restaurants. Miami take a look at Columbus,Ohio or Ybor in Tampa.
Coral Way is a gold mine and beautiful especially east of Douglas Road.
How about creating an interesting community for LGBTQ people. Miami has nothing practically for this community. It is a wasteland in that regard.
Therefore you see migration to Fort Lauderdale.
So much can be done to help Miami. Make it a fun town, then more jobs will follow. It is not the other way around.
Wayne
March 31, 2024 at 4:43 am
Miami has always held my interest as some where to relocate to . I agree 100% with Felix that the city sits on an untapped goldmine in the LGBTQ community who always build energy and draw new people to that energy .
I’m living in Brooklyn and have for many years . The cost of everything everywhere is a real issue for everyone.
I am optimistic that Miami-Dade will do what is necessary to transform